Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Holiday Peak

I hope you and your family finds peace, solice and safe travels over the next 10 days. 2009 looks to be an exciting challenge to just about every industry in the US.


Release Date & Time
Economic Indicator
Consensus Estimate
Analysis

Mon. Dec. 22, 1:00 p.m. ET
Treasury auctions $38 bil. of
2-year notes
Market participants’ desire for maximum asset protection continues to trump their desire for a meaningful return on invested capital as Uncle Sam comes to the market place looking to borrow a record setting $38 billion in the form of 2-year notes. This event will was supportive of steady mortgage interest rates.

Tue. Dec. 23, 8:30 a.m. ET
Final revision Q3
Gross Domestic Product
-0.5% vs. last -0.5%
Look for this data set to do nothing more than take up space on this week’s economic calendar as far as mortgage investors are concerned.

Tue. Dec. 23, 10:00 a.m. ET
Nov. Existing Home Sales
Down 1.6%
Mortgage investors have already “priced-in” expectations for a dismal November existing home sales figure. A reported value that falls anywhere near the consensus estimate will likely have little, if any impact on the trend trajectory of mortgage interest rates today.

Tue. Dec. 23, 10:00 a.m. ET
Nov. New Home Sales
Down 3.0%
Rising unemployment, stock market losses, tight credit underwriting standards and competition from a huge stock of existing homes for sale probably took a toll on the pace of new home sales last month. A number that lands to close to the consensus estimate will likely draw nothing more than a passing glance from mortgage investors. In the unlikely case new home sales post a decline of 2.5% or less – look for “surprised” investors to push mortgage interest rates fractionally higher.

Tues. Dec. 23, 1:00 p.m. ET
Treasury auctions $28 bil. of
5-year notes
Economic uncertainties will likely be strong enough to create decent support for this offering. If so, this event will tend to be supportive of steady mortgage interest rates. A poorly bid 5-year note auction will almost certainly make it difficult for mortgage interest rates to move notably lower today.

Wed. Dec. 24, 8:30 a.m. ET
Initial jobless claims for the week ended 12/20
-4,000
The modest expected decline in the initial jobless claims figure will likely draw nothing more than a passing glance from mortgage investors today.

Wed. Dec. 24, 8:30 a.m. ET
Nov. Personal Income
Spending
Core PCE index
0.0% vs. last +0.3%
-0.7% vs. last -0.1%
0.0% vs. last 0.0%
The most important component of this data series is the core personal consumption expenditure index, the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation pressure at the consumer level. The expected unchanged reading for core PCE will tend to be supportive of steady to fractionally lower mortgage interest rates.

Wed. Dec. 24, 8:30 a.m. ET
Nov. Durable Goods Orders
-3.0% vs. last -6.9%
The modest improvement in this forward looking measure of manufacturing activity will likely be completely overshadowed by the announced month-long plant closing for most of the auto industry. This report will likely have little, if any impact on the direction of mortgage interest rates today.

Wed. Dec. 24, 2:00 p.m. ET
The mortgage market closes early for the Xmas Holiday

Thurs. Dec. 25,
Marry Christmas

Fri. Dec. 26, 2:00 p.m. ET
The CBOT will close early.