Tuesday, April 14, 2009

It's TRUE!!!

On several occations over the last 3 months I have found the following statement is indeed a fact: There are only 24 hours in a work day.

This weeks Economic Report(s)

Release Date & Time
Economic Indicator
Consensus Estimate
My Analysis

Tue. April 14, 8:30 a.m. ET
Mar. Producer Price Index
Core Rate
+0.1% vs. last +0.1%
+0.1% vs. last +0.2%
The modest expected rise in the headline producer price index can be attributed almost exclusively to the rise in energy prices during the month. Excluding the more volatile food and energy components, core inflation at the producer level probably remained extremely benign. Most investorswill give this data little more than a passing glance.

Tue. April 14, 8:30 a.m. ET
Mar. Retail Sales
Ex. autos
+0.2% vs. last -0.1%
-0.1% vs. last +0.7%
A sharp acceleration in the nation’s unemployment rate has no doubt taking a toll on retail sales. This data will be nothing more than an exercise in defining the degree of weakness in the retail sector. If the actual numbers match or exceeds the consensus estimate this report will tend to be mortgage interest rate neutral to slightly friendly. In the unlikely event either of the two components of this report proves to be stronger than expected look for perhaps a mid-day rally in stocks and things like mortgage interest rates to creep fractionally higher.

Tue. April 14, 10:00 a.m. ET
Feb. Business Inventories
-1.0% vs. last -1.1%
This old stale bit of macro-economic news will likely do nothing more than take up space on this week’s calendar.

Wed. April 15, 8:30 a.m. ET
Mar. Consumer Price Index
Core Rate
+0.2% vs. last +0.4%
+0.2% vs. last +0.2%
Gasoline prices crept higher in February, contributing to the increase in headline consumer inflation. Excluding the more volatile food and energy components, core inflation at the consumer level continued its multi-month trend to lower levels. This data will likely exert little, if any influence on the direction of mortgage interest rates today.

Wed. April 15, 9:15 a.m. ET
Mar. Industrial Production &
Capacity Utilization
-1.0% vs. last -1.5%
69.6 vs. last 70.2
The massive decline in the manufacturing sector is expected to have continued unabated during the month of March. This data will likely have little, if any influence on the direction of mortgage interest rates.

Thurs. April 16, 8:30 a.m. ET
Mar. Housing Starts &
Building Permits
-5.6%
-2.4%
The housing market is still months away at best. The expected decline in these two measures of housing activity will come as no surprise -- and therefore their impact on the trend trajectory of mortgage interest rates will probably be negligible.

Thurs. April 16, 8:30 a.m. ET
Initial jobless claims for the week ended 4/11
Down 3,000
Today’s figures will likely draw little more than a passing glance from market participants.

Fri. April 17

Mon. April 20