4th of July - Reflecting on this Country's Greatness

Before you bemoan all of the challenges facing America at the present moment, may I suggest you take a few minutes and examine our Country's place in History. On so many levels we are the most dominate, most successful and will should be the most admired country in the History of Mankind.

It's not for our what we have acquired in my opinion which will demonstrate America's greatness but what this country has chosen not to do that will differentiate itself from the rest of the great "empires". As I view it, we are the last remaining superpower which choose NOT to acquire additional riches through our will or military might on other countries. Regardless of our existing challenges in Iraq and Afghanistan, we have the means to suppress most countries.

America didn't get lucky and fall into this position of greatness. It was through the dedication and sacrifices of our forefathers. Our men and woman who dedicated themselves to something much larger than themselves. The great Ronald Regan quoted the following regarding the 4th: "Let the Fourth of July always be a reminder that here in this land, for the first time, it was decided that man is born with certain God-given rights; that government is only a convenience created and managed by the people, with no powers of its own except those voluntarily granted to it by the people. "

Economic Calendar

Release Date & Time
Economic Indicator
Consensus Estimate
My Analysis


Mon. June 29
Big bag of nothing.

Tue. June 30
Ditto here.

Wed. July 1, 10:00 a.m. ET
June Institute of Supply Mgmt.
44.5 vs. last 42.9
Many analysts may see the improvement in this index as a clear indication the manufacturing sector is on track to resume growth in the second half of the year. I anticipate investors to nudge fixed income rates fractionally higher if the actual numbers match or exceed this forecast.

Thurs. July 2, 8:30 a.m. ET
Initial jobless claims for the week ended 6/27
Down 8,000
Initial weekly jobless claims remain stubbornly high. The expected 8,000 or so decline for last week will not do much to convince market participants that the largest swoon in the labor sector in post WWII history is over. This data set will be completely overshadowed by the far more important June nonfarm figures that will be released concurrently.

Thurs. July 2, 8:30 a.m. ET
June Nonfarm Payrolls Jobless Rate Average hourly earnings
Down 355,000 9.6% vs. last 9.4% +0.1% vs. last +0.1%
The payroll data has shown a declining number of job losses in each of the past four months. If the sequence continues uninterrupted this time around – look for mortgage interest rates to edge incrementally higher. A headline number showing a larger decline in nonfarm payrolls than projected, together with a national jobless rate of 9.6% or higher -- and/or large upward revisions to prior months payroll figures -- will tend to support steady to fractionally lower interest rates.

Thurs. July 2, 10:00 a.m. ET
May Factory Orders
+0.8% vs. last +0.7%
The expected rise in this metric of manufacturing activity is somewhat of "no-brainer." Already released data shows that durable goods orders (items manufactured to last three-year or more) rose 1.8% in May. Inventory levels are at such low levels that it is almost a certainty that factory activity had to kick-in to gear to fill the outstanding orders for durable goods. In any case, this old stale bit of macro-economic data will be sharply overshadowed by the earlier release of the June nonfarm payroll figures.

Thurs. July 2,
Mortgage market operating on normal schedule – no early close
In April, the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA), the regulatory body for the bond and mortgage-backed securities markets, reduced the number of recommended early market closes it issues each year from twelve to five, Early close recommendations around the Good Friday, Memorial Day, Thanksgiving (day after), Christmas and New Year’s Day holidays remained unchanged

Fri. July 3
The mortgage market is closed for the July 4th Holiday

Mon. July 6, 10:00 a.m. ET June Institute of Supply Mgmt. Service Sector Index 45.5 vs. last 44.0 This broad barometer of economic activity is expected to show business conditions in the nation’s non-manufacturing sectors continued to improve slightly in June. Should the actual number fall close to the consensus estimate (a reasonable expectation) the impact of this data on the current level of mortgage interest rates will likely be negligible.

If you have an American flag, fly it this weekend.